(Xinhua) -- Ugandan new national poll
results on Friday gave incumbent President Yoweri Museveni a
landslide victory against his opponents if the 2016 presidential
elections were held last month.
The 2015 Opinion poll
report by Research World International, "Measuring the National
Political Temperature ahead of the 2016 General Elections"
revealed that overall, if elections were held in July, President
Museveni would win by 54 percent, Kizza Besigye, main opposition
leader would get 19 percent, 15 percent for former Prime
Minister Amama Mbabazi and others candidates at 12
The poll carried out between July 11 and 26 with a total
sample size of 2,320 in the 48 districts out of 112 across the
East African country targeted respondents aged 17 years and
On the aided choice for the president candidate to support
during the 2016 polls, 51 per cent gave it to Museveni, 15 per
cent would support Besigye, 11 per cent went for Mbabazi,
Speaker of Parliament, Rebecca Kadaga, the Forum for Democratic
Change (FDC) president, Mugisha Muntu, Democratic party
president, Norbert Mao, Uganda People’s Congress party
president, Jimmy Akena, Kampala Lord Mayo Erias Lukwago, each
got 1 per cent, 8 per cent were undecided, 8 per cent declined
to mention, others were 3 per cent and one percent said they
On the un-aided choice for the presidency, 55 per cent of the
respondents said Museveni is the best choice, 17 per cent gave
Besigye, Mbabazi got 13 per cent, while 7 per cent of the
respondents said they were undecided, three percent believed
none and others one percent.
"The strategic purpose of the survey was to measure public
attitudes, opinions and behaviors on politics, governance, and
civic issues so as to inform the public debate about national
democracy, intra party democracy and competition, choices and
drivers of choices," said Patrick Wakida, the chief Executive of
Research World International.
"Our poll results give incumbent president Museveni the lead.
He is doing better than the other candidates intending to run in
the next year’s presidential polls," he said.
At least 94 percent of the registered voters in Uganda intend
to vote in the 2016 polls, which are slated between February and
The Electoral Commission is yet to issue the exact polling
Out of those who intend to vote in the 2016 presidential
polls, at least 32 percent of them are new voters aged between
17-24 years of age, which is likely to pitch Museveni and his
former bush physician Besigye for the fourth straight time.
The poll showed that 82 percent of the respondents supported
NRM while 13 percent were affiliated to lead opposition party
The respondents said that the key drivers to decide whom to
vote for in the presidential elections are mainly the pledges to
fighting corruption, job creation, health care and economic
Some 25 of the respondents pegged the elections to fighting
corruption, unemployment / job creation at 20 per cent,
improving the health care at 18 percent and improving economic
growth at 7 per cent, providing quality education for citizens
at 8 percent and ensuring peace and security in the country at 5
At least some 38 per cent of the ruling National Resistance
Movement (NRM) party members think it’s time for a new party
President Museveni has been in power since 1986 after five
year guerrilla war in the central part of the country.
Some 34 per cent of the NRM members consider the former
sacked party Secretary General, Mbabazi a viable party leader
for the post-Museveni and would vote him as an independent.
Mbabazi who was sacked as Prime Minister and party Secretary
General last year, last month announced he will run as an
independent candidate in the next year’s polls.
At least 39 per cent of the respondents feel the opposition
should unite and field one candidate in the 2016 presidential
elections in 2016, while 38 per cent do not believe so.
The opposition recently formed a joint Democratic Alliance to
field a joint presidential candidate, legislators and local
According to the poll, only 33 percent of the voters sampled
have confidence in 2016 elections, some 32 percent do not
believe that the elections will be free and fair while 23 per
cent are not sure of the polls outcome.
Some 29 have no fear in the polls, 24 per cent fear for
election rigging, 23 per cent fear the chaos might erupt if
President Museveni wins, 16 per cent fear voter intimidation, 14
per cent think of vote buying, two percent fear riots and
demonstrations, corruption at 0.4 per cent, don’t know at 0.3
per cent and inflation stands at 0.3 per cent.
The poll that opposition has already dismissed as biased
shows that 45 percent of the respondents don’t believe that
political power can peacefully change hands through elections in
Uganda and 61 per cent don’t think the incumbent president can
peacefully hand over power if defeated in the 2016 polls.
"We don’t believe in these polls at all.
"We doubt the criteria they used to come up with the polls
id Asuman Basalirwa, the president of Justice Forum.
"The poll is aimed at serving the interests of the ruling
regime to show that it has massive support in the country," he
But the ruling party dismissed the opposition fears
"The position should stop crying.
"The poll only confirms one thing that President Museveni is
the most popular candidate.
"He will definitely win in round one," said Don Wanyama, the
media political assistant in the office of the NRM party
Some 76 percent of the voters want the presidential term
limits that were scrapped in the country’s constitution in 2005
to be restored.
Uganda legislators in 2005 abolished the presidential term
limits in the constitution give President Museveni to rule the
country for more years.
Museveni last month picked his party nominations papers for
the position of chairman and presidential flag bearer in the
next year’s polls.
On the 2011 election promises, some 43 per cent feel that
President Museveni has "somehow" delivered his campaign
promises, 26 per cent believe he has not and 26 percent that he
has done it.